The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and Canada could result in as many as 70,000 jobs being lost in Ontario alone this year.
The figures come in a new report from the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), which provides independent financial and economic analysis to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. According to the FAO, an estimated 68,100 people may lose their jobs amid the U.S. tariffs and Canada’s response to them.
The FAO says it’s basing these estimates on trade actions announced by the U.S. and Canada as of April 17, which includes tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and automobile parts, as well as Canadian retaliatory tariffs. It adds that the U.S. is Ontario’s “most important trading partner,” accounting for 77 per cent of Ontario’s total goods exports and 60 percent of the province’s total services exports. On top of that, about one in every nine jobs in Ontario are related to U.S. exports.
Looking ahead, the FAO predicts that tariffs could result in Ontario job losses of 119,200 and 137,900 in 2026 and 2029, respectively. Altogether, Ontario’s unemployment rate could increase by 1.1 percent between 2025 and 2029, per the FAO.
Breaking it down by city, the FAO says that while all of the province’s Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) would be affected, Windsor would be hit the hardest, followed by Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo and Waterloo. Windsor, in particular, is a big hub for U.S. automotive production, with manufacturing giant Stellantis even temporarily shutting down its plant in the city last month amid the tariffs.
The FAO predicts that all of this economic headwind will lead to Ontario’s real GDP growth slowing to 0.6 per cent, versus the 1.7 per cent increase it was expected to have seen without tariffs. The FAO says this would result in a “modest recession” this year.
All in all, the FAO’s report is incredibly comprehensive, breaking down all sorts of economic figures across many different industries. There are also a bunch of charts in there to compare Ontario’s reliance on the U.S. versus the rest of the world when it comes to international business.
You can read the whole report on the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario’s website.
For now, it remains to be seen what will happen next in this ever-evolving trade war. Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney had his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss a variety of issues, although there were no firm updates on tariffs to come out of it. (The main highlight was Carney directly pushing back against Trump’s repeated calls to make Canada “the 51st state.”)
Following that meeting, Pete Hoekstra, Canada’s envoy to the U.S., noted that tariffs on Canada may not be “totally removed” under a future agreement, although he said he’s optimistic about developing a “stronger” relationship between the two nations.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, meanwhile, reacted to the report during a recent press conference (via CBC News), saying “we’ll see what happens” while promising to “work things out with the United States, with President Trump.”
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